Many people reading this blog may not have a clue about regression or statistical analysis. There are literally thousands of websites online that can explain linear regression a million times better than I can. So before getting into the heart of the blog, let me explain a few things about regression:
One cool thing about regression is that we can predict whether the numbers state that UGA will win or lose a given game based on the information we plug into the statistical model. Regression is great at making
confident predictions about the future. For instance, if we want to see whether UGA wins or loses a game when winning the opening coin toss then regression can make us more confident in whether they will or will not lose.
Well, that's what this blog looks to find out. Do I have any idea what I'm trying to find? Not really. But after a period of trial and error, I'd like to think we can come up with sound reason to support or refute why Mike Bobo should be fired or why we should run the ball more out of 4-wide sets.
Sure. If stats didn't matter then statisticians wouldn't keep track of them during a game. Simply put, we all know why the uga football team succeeds or fails during a given week. But maybe there are underlying pieces of data that show we played better or worse than what we saw as fans in the stands. Yes, stats matter, but no they are not the end-all-be-all of football. Football is a zero-sum game: someone will win or lose. Often times there will be a huge play that makes or breaks a game, but this blog's purpose is to identify key stats to give the casual Georgia football fan something to watch on Saturdays.
- What qualifies me to write about this?
I have no qualifications for writing this blog other than the fact that I know how to run regression, check for correlation, forecast data that trends upward or downward, forecast data with or without seasonality, and keep accurate records of the offensive play calling. Other than that, don't expect me to break out the sabermetrics. Don't get me wrong, I love the geeky stuff, but ultimately, this blog has to be entertaining for someone who literally knows nothing about stats.
That said, my next post should have some good data to review.
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